“Every society is just three meal away from complete chaos” - Vladimir Lenin
Energy crises never appear in isolation. There is always a knock on effect, because energy is needed at all stages of a supply chain, from manufacture to delivery and increased prices are felt at every link. In this case, we can start to make out the shape of things to come. There are already shortages of many goods, factories are on reduced hours or shuttered and supply chain delays and omissions are worsening, not improving. It's all but certain that this coming winter (especially for the poor) will get ugly; it'll be more of an inconvenience to others, who can still afford to heat their homes and who can tolerate the up-tick in food prices, even if there is no valid reason for the price hikes. There is every indication that food scarcity is going to be an even bigger problem than expensive electricity.
Figure 1
The global food price index rose 12.6% in March, the largest monthly rise in history, to an overall all time high. Prices are, on average, a third higher than a year ago. The cereal price index, part of the overall picture, was higher still; up 17.1%. And, even more dramatically, the vegetable oil price index soared 23.3% in the one month, also.(1) But why? If you listen to the legacy media and every Western politician of note, it's all down to that bogeyman Putin. It is noticeable that, as with Covid, the language is misleading. It's 'the war in Ukraine' that is responsible for the pain, not the West's response to it, just as it was the 'pandemic' rather than the measures introduced by governments that was the problem.
There is no doubt that the war has exacerbated matters, that already existed but had not been addressed. Bear in mind, once again, that the problems with fertilizer production in the West were endemic well before the war, solely down to the suddenly enormous cost of producing it, which is dictated by the price of gas, as previously noted. And the price of gas was on the rise for the duration of 2021.(2) But we know whose fault it will be, despite the fact that there are measures that could have been taken over two months ago, but which weren't.
The EU, whilst convening a food crisis meeting, is still not putting spare agricultural land to use.(3) In case you didn't know (and I'd never heard of it either), the EU runs a scheme called Farm to Fork, which is “at the heart of the European Green New Deal, aiming to make food systems fair, healthy and environmentally friendly”, as the EU themselves tell us. Unfortunately, that word 'sustainable' pops up shortly thereafter and we find ourselves, once more, in a parallel universe governed by ideology with no place for proportionality. This programme is effectively a state version of ESG governance. It was voted into existence by the ciphers in the European Parliament in October 2021, over the objections of farmers and features 27 actions to be completed by 2030, but actionable immediately.(4)
“The 27 actions proposed in the strategy include the following:
a 50% reduction in the use and risk of pesticides (with 2020 serving as the base year);
a 20% reduction in the use of fertilizers, including manure;
a 50% reduction in sales of antimicrobials or antibiotics used for farm animals and aquaculture; and
requiring 25% of agricultural land be farmed under organic practices (an increase current level of around 8%.)
a 10% reduction in farmland used for growing crops.”(5)
What could possibly go wrong when, at the time at which the vote was taken, the price of fuel had already dictated that far less fertilizer had been produced and that the upcoming harvest would be insufficient for global needs? Even without that bump in the road, which even the cerebrally challenged would recognize as potentially disastrous, it was estimated that EU farmers would have to cut their agricultural production by 7-12%, which would drive up worldwide food prices and increase the number of food insecure people by tens of millions.(6) But it's totally worth it because ...climate change. So, nothing was done, which was inevitable. After all, governments do have early warning systems in place, specifically so that they can avert crises like this and yet they sat on their hands for a year and did nothing. They weren't going to suddenly leap into action just as the plan was coming to fruition. The imposition of sanctions was the pièce de résistance .
You and I might think that starving millions of people in order to prevent fake global warming - that will allegedly produce droughts and starve millions of people - is an exercise in futility. Au contraire. Apparently, the current self induced sanctions imbroglio is an opportunity instead, according to Biden's head of USAID:
“Fertilizer shortages are real now because Russia is a big exporter of fertilizer and even though fertilizer is not sanctioned, less fertilizer is coming out of Russia. As a result, we are working with countries to think about natural solutions like manure and compost – and this may hasten transitions that would be in the interest for farmers to make anyway. So, never let a crisis go to waste.”(7)
She actually articulated that last sentence; the elites have no shame any more. So, we have the globalists at the EU continuing on their ideological path, rather as the Germans are doing with their continued shutdown of their remaining nuclear power stations, with nary a care in the world or, more accurately, without a care for their citizens and we have the US, in concert with its toadying allies, introducing sanctions that (coincidentally) further their own climate change goals and we have no recourse to any body that would do anything remotely sensible. It would seem that globalization can also be a case of putting all your eggs in one basket and increasing your vulnerability. Who'd have suspected that? Usually giving up autonomy to unelected, centralized bodies works so well.
“Behind the growing global fertilizer shortage crisis is the five-fold explosion in the price of methane or natural gas as it is usually called. This has its origins in deliberate “anti-carbon” green policies of the Biden Administration and of the European Union with its “Fit for 55” program to cut CO2 emissions by 55% by 2030, including methane or natural gas. The Biden administration has forced disinvestment in USA shale gas, and the forced expansion of highly-subsidized Green Energy such as wind and solar have created an unreliable electric grid....As nuclear and coal plants are taxed into extinction for the Zero Carbon madness, prices for oil and natural gas are exploding.”(8)
That is what has actually happened. Never mind the war; that's the cherry on top, nothing more. It's an excuse, a useful distraction and, because of the endless opportunities it affords to vilify Putin for all the ills initially brought about by Western politicians and their ideological blunders, it's the gift that keeps on giving. A case in point: Russia and Belarus are responsible for nearly 40% of global potash exports, which is a vital ingredient in fertilizer. Russia alone exports 48% of global ammonium nitrate and, with Ukraine, 28% of nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium fertilizers.(9)
So, of course, the thing to do when a food crisis is already looming is to place caps on the import of Russian potash, as part of the sanctions. In the field of egregious and blindingly obvious own goals, this one takes pride of place.(10) It should be noted that nowhere is it written that any sanctions had to be imposed, least of all ones that hurt us more than the alleged enemy. Cutting off one's nose to spite one's face has never been a successful policy.
A quick word on the mechanics of all this. It's all well and good to bemoan the fertilizer crisis, but what is the practical effect? How does the system work? Farms usually work on a three year crop rotation, for sound reasons. Year 1 might be wheat, year 2 barley and year 3 peas or beans. The crops in years 1 and 2 will require a healthy dose of fertilizer whereas the legumes in year three will acquire their nitrogen by 'fixing', the process of drawing it from the air. In this way, no fertilizer is used in one year in three and the soil gets a breather and a chance to replenish natural mineral stocks.
The fertilizer companies themselves produce the product all year round and farmers – usually in the guise of co-operatives, in order to maximize their purchasing power – buy the product when it is at its cheapest, which is often early summer, and then store it until the following spring. A steadily rising fertilizer price, which would have been the prevailing market conditions in 2021, would not have been good.
Nonetheless, the effects of the shortages in fertilizer and the altered crop yields will not be felt (in actuality) until August this year, at the earliest. This is because we are still consuming last year's harvest, which has been preserved in storage at around 1° C since September. But, by the time early harvesting is under way and the likely extent of this year's yield is calculated, guesswork will harden into reality.(11) That's not to say that speculation as to the scale of the disaster will not be apparent before then – it's already happening, as perception is what drives prices.
Who imports the most Russian fertilizers?
Figure 2
When did fertilizer prices initially spike?
Figure 3
And when did Russia invade Ukraine? 24th February. Following the breadcrumbs isn't too challenging if you can bear to switch off the BBC or CNN for a spell.
So, the net result of these actions is that farmers are planting soybeans instead of wheat, because soybeans need less fertilizer. And it's not just fertilizer that costs exponentially more. So does diesel, tractors, machine parts, feed for livestock and seeds.(12) The result? In the US (and, as the same conditions apply, Europe), it's a perfectly designed storm. For the first time since 1983, more soybeans that corn will be planted; wheat planting is at its fifth lowest level since 1919. Corn is a more versatile crop than soybean, and scarcity will lead to yet more food price increases.(13)
Wheat is now more expensive than in any year since 2008 and set to go higher; as recently as March it was $6.62 per bushel, only to jump to $10.97 in March.(14) The reason? What always happens when it appears that supplies are going to become short in the very near future? People start hoarding or, if it's an entire nation, they keep what they have and ban exports, which is precisely what's happening. Hungary has banned wheat exports,(15)
trade exiting the Black Sea has ground to a near halt as Ukraine limits exports of sunflower oil, wheat, oats, millet and cattle (16) and they are very far from being the only countries concerned with protecting its own citizens' food supply.
Indonesia (producers of more than half the world's palm oil) has also halted shipments and Turkey has stopped exports of butter, beef, lamb, maize and vegetable oils.(17) This is on top of a drought in the western US, which has been ongoing since the summer of 2020. Before the usual climate change nonsense is trotted out, the dry spell began with a moderate La Niña in the Pacific, a weather pattern that disrupts weather patterns in the Pacific regions and which occurs every few years.(18) This is probably why the drought has not garnered a lot of attention; attempts to shoehorn it into the global warming narrative may be too easily refuted.
Instead of doing anything that might assist, the priority is the war in Ukraine, apparently; as previously noted, the well-being of their own populations is sadly not a primary concern of the US or many other countries in the EU. The best thing to do, rather than encouraging a negotiated peace, is to attempt to continue the war by voting for another $40 billion of taxpayers money (on top of the $20 billion already sent), thus ensuring that more weapons are vaporized by the Russians as soon as they arrive in western Ukraine and that more hardship is visited upon American citizens by the ongoing imposition of sanctions.(19)
It's important to note that the failure to address any of the real problems that are currently afflicting America isn't solely a Democrat policy. It's also ably assisted by the Republicans, who are almost fully onboard with a US foreign policy that is ginning up to finance another 'forever war', whilst paying no heed to the concerns of voters who do not view the war in Ukraine as something that the US should be involved in. Indeed, even before the war, the electorate was clear on where they stood, not that the political class care one jot:
“A majority of likely voters surveyed believe the U.S. should have limited involvement in event that Russia invades Ukraine (84.8%), according to the poll results:
Just 31.1% believe the U.S. should provide supplies and military weapons.
Just 30.5% believe the U.S. should provide only diplomatic area pressure.
Just 23.2% believe the U.S. should provide U.S. military advisers.”(20)
This is very far from being the only act of sabotage. There have been some very strange coincidences in the recent past, particularly in the US, all of which serve to worsen current problems. Firstly, there has been a series of fires at food processing plants.
Figure 4
Figure 5
The first in the series was in 2019, at Tysons Foods in Kansas. This plant processed 6% of all beef consumed in the US and the plant was subsequently closed indefinitely. The pattern really took off in August 2021 and has continued ever since; in total, there have now been 16 fires at processing plants across America, the bulk of them affecting the supply of meat.(21) Indeed, between 22nd February and 30th April this year, there were at least six, including three in eight days. Additionally, and inexplicably, two light aircraft crashed into two other food plants within three days of each other in April.(22)(23)
Those of you with long memories may remember that fire has also proven to the enemy of microchips and hydroxychloroquine. There were fires at microchip factories in Taiwan and Japan eighteen months ago (24) and devastating fires at the world's second biggest chloroquine factory (25) – coincidentally also in Taiwan - and two others in the Americas also self ignited at inopportune moments in 2020. In March, it was the Taiwanese pyromaniacs at it again, this time twice in two days in the same district of the same city. First a Carrefour logistics centre, next an engine oil packaging company. Just a small, 20 engine blaze, to go with two more factory fires within the same week.(26) How very peculiar and condescendingly unsubtle. I cannot prove foul play (and they may not all be connected, particularly the four recent Taiwanese fires) but, equally, I'm not a huge fan of spectacular coincidences, especially when they affect key parts of the global supply chain that are already being targeted ideologically.
We know that methane is the latest 'greenhouse gas' to be doxxed by the zealots and opportunists in the Biden administration and that noted expert on all human matters, Bill Gates. Gates has been busy preaching to us about the necessity of fully switching to synthetic beef (research into which he is, naturally, heavily invested in) so that we can do away with burping cows (27) and Biden's plan to cut US carbon emissions by 50% by the year 2030 will mean that Americans will be required to cut 90% of red meat and 50% of other animal based foods from their diets.(28) A good way to get that started would be to lay waste to beef food processing plants, would it not?
As for semi-conductors and microchips:
Semiconductors are the new oil. Whoever controls semiconductors can control the world....although the U.S. is the world’s leader in headquarters for companies generating semiconductor demand (33%) and for end users (25%), the U.S. manufactures just 19% of all chips, while mainland China supplies 35% and Taiwan 15%...Taiwan may manufacture only 15% of all chips, but it manufactures 92% of the world’s advanced chips.”(29)
There has been a microchip shortage since 2020. If you're expecting an explanation as to why, I'd avoid myopic mainstream media outlets who continue to insist that it's due to global supply chain issues that, remarkably, involved ships being in the wrong place continually for about eighteen months. The other explanation is that, when the global lock-downs took effect, chip manufacturers reallocated production resources to more profitable lines (including chips for iPhones and Playstations) and won't swap them back.(30) The situation has become so dire that several large industrial companies are ripping chips out of used washing machines and the like in order to meet demand.(31) The result is that, of the industries that are hardest hit, car manufacture is probably in the worst shape. Vehicle production in 2021 was way down; not due to a lack of demand, but a lack of chips:
“Ford missed out on an estimated 1.25 million sales last year. Volkswagen fell short of planned production by 1.15 million, GM and Toyota missed out on 1.1 million and Stellantis came up short by about 1 million units.”(32)
And, with the exception of the unfortunate bovines, what other target is firmly in the carbon zero cross-hairs? Cars and their beastly emissions, of course. Probably just another coincidence. What else could possibly go wrong?
How about another fertilizer supply shock, as if there weren't enough of those already? Apparently, Union Pacific Railroads told CF Industries Holdings (in mid April) to reduce the volume of its private cars transporting nitrogen shipments to all the top agricultural states, effective immediately. CF Industries Holdings – the world's largest fertilizer company – had to reduce shipments by 20%. This means that there have been delayed and cancelled deliveries at the worst possible time, when the spring planting season is underway.(33)
Yet one more unprecedented oddity, having the effect of squeezing food prices and supply still further come harvest time. To be fair, Union Pacific are also screwing the energy industry; they plan to cut shipments of diesel and other fuels by up to 50%. They (and BNSF Railways) don't have enough crew, apparently; surprisingly, in another unanticipated reverse, furloughed employees receiving a fat cheque from the government and facing mandatory 'vaccine' mandates don't fancy returning to their old jobs.(34) Move along. Nothing to see here.
Anything more? Yes, indeed. Ransomware attacks on tractor manufacturers, for instance, just days after the FBI warned about increased cyber-attacks on agricultural companies,(35) floating sea mines in the Black Sea,(36) (I kid you not), the insistence on the implementation of a system of counting supply chain emissions in the midst of a supply chain crisis (remember, ideology is the most important thing)(37) and other ideological drivel that will intentionally exacerbate existing problems.
For instance, despite the fact that scores of container ships are sitting off Long Beach (the busiest commercial shipping gateway in the US) and the long standing offloading issues with the port, California is pressing ahead with a new set of regulations that will require trucking companies in the state to upgrade their trucks with 2010 or newer engines by 1st January 2023.(38) This will result in approximately 80,000 trucks – 17% of the total – almost certainly going out of commission. If there are supply chain problems now, just wait until the New Year.
The last contributor to the jigsaw is the Chinese. Since before Christmas, they have been locking down more and more of the country in a supposed attempt to reach zero Covid. They locked down Hubei province in early 2020, in the early days of the 'pandemic' but that was the full extent of the most draconian measures. Then, inexplicably, once the mildest variant hit (Omicron) they decided that they would go the whole nine yards and gradually lock most of the country down, particularly the ports. They have bolted people into their apartments (39), imposed lengthy quarantine requirements and kept escalating restrictions throughout the past four and a half months (40) and are likely to impose mass testing ad infinitum (41) and none of it will work, which they must already know. Covid has to be lived with, not eradicated, especially when vast swathes of the population are 'vaccinated' and therefore likely to suffer repeated infections.
Of course, China is at liberty to persecute its own people at leisure. Nobody in the US will criticize them for that. But why would they be so assiduous in trying to do their own legs. Is it because it's not just them that they are intentionally crippling? Because the effect is being felt worldwide. The world's largest container port is Shanghai. This is the situation off shore.
Figure 6
Very few workers in the docks, because of quarantines, results in a parking lot. There are always some ships stacked up, but Shanghai's backlog is up 15% and the ports to the north (Rizhao, DongJiakou and Qingdao) are up by a third.(42) Of course, once the lock-downs are over and the snafu starts to resolve itself, it'll be time to hot foot it across the Pacific to the waters off Long Beach and wait there instead. In the meantime, Chinese manufacturing is grinding to a halt as staff, transport and raw materials continue to be in short supply and, due to the US and EU previously off-shoring large tracts of their manufacturing base to China, goods for those markets aren't even being made, let alone shipped. The likes of Tesla has not yet re-opened its Shanghai plant, which closed six weeks ago.(43) Nothing is going to get better anytime soon, especially when it seems to me that the plan calls for the opposite outcome.
What happens when goods are in short supply? Empty shelves initially and then rationing; all in the interests of equality, safety etc etc. And then, the third way solution. Making do without whatever it is. At present, the US is experiencing many shortages, not the least of which is baby formula. 40-50% of the top selling products are out of stock, the price has gone up 18% year on year and there's another one of those unfortunate production plant problems. Nationwide retailers have already enforced rationing.(44) Even food banks serving the poor are coming up empty, as those that have food keep hold of it, just in case.(45)
I am no longer in quite such a minority when I posit the theory that there is nothing accidental about the successive disasters that are assailing us. The more time passes, the more it becomes clear that the events of the past two years form part of a continuum that is still inexorably advancing. Making a Horlicks of Covid, Ukraine, fuel and food – one after another – is not mere incompetence; it's sabotage. To me, it appears that there are true ideological believers who are being given their head by cynical elites who back them.
It's been far too easy to blame everything on the usual bureaucratic fubars that afflict every administration. But there are other areas of American (and European) life that have also been afflicted by the same malicious hands, whether that be elections, the border, free speech, a deliberate weakening of law and order or judicial partisanship. Sure, it's not as if Biden or Harris or Boris don't screw up. It's just that all the alleged mistakes serve the same ends; it's the equivalent of flipping a coin and getting heads fifteen times in a row.
Don't worry, though. The experts have it all in hand. How does this sound as a daily diet?
“A protein shake for breakfast made from cow milk that was brewed in cell cultures, with insect powder added for protein, and blue-green algae added for vitamins. A vat-made burger could be served up for lunch and a dinner burrito made from “scrambled cultured fungal protein” could be on the menu.”(46)
In case you're wondering, that isn't a joke. It's part of a study published in a seemingly reputable journal by some earnest academics with no sense of self awareness – not exactly an extinct breed.(47) That's just an example of the third way solution. Those who rule over us have been clear about their goals; it's not as if we haven't been warned. They've signed treaties and accords and, in some cases, written unattainable climate change policies into law (or attempted to). When I say unattainable, what I really mean is that these policies cannot possibly replace our energy needs as they are today.
But that's because they're not intended to. In the same way that the 'pandemic' advanced the elites' cause by digitizing majorities in most Western countries and inducing – and quantifying – the compliance of fearful populations and introducing us to new normals, so the coming food crisis (and, by extension, the energy crisis that birthed it) is part of the same overall plan. It will increase our reliance on the state and their partners in Big Business and it will keep out focus on yet another developing disaster. It will appeal to a truly primal fear – hunger. The potential for civil unrest is obvious, but I think that's the idea.
For those of you that may think that this analysis is a little overwrought, answer me this. There are few things more destabilizing that a famine, whether induced by nature or man. So, why have governments done nothing to address these crises, other than to make them worse by blindly pursuing ideological ends at the cost of inevitable human suffering? Why, even now, is nobody in the political class addressing the situation or, indeed, even acknowledging it? How is it possible to reach any conclusion other than the obvious one? They've done nothing because they intended the outcome we're going to get. The 'pandemic' occupied our attention and now the war is the latest shiny object. And because we were distracted, it's going to come upon us whether we like it or not.
Food has been used to control populations for millennia; there's nothing new under the sun. What else are the globalists up to? Next, a deeper look at what the war in Ukraine is really about and what the West is doing to keep it simmering…and why.
Citations
(1) https://www.npr.org/2022/04/08/1091705608/global-food-prices-record-high-ukraine-war
(3) https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/03/13/food-rationing-its-all-putins-fault-of-course/
(4) https://ec.europa.eu/food/horizontal-topics/farm-fork-strategy_en
(6) https://larouchepub.com/pr/2020/20201121_grteen_cuts.html
(7)
(8) http://www.williamengdahl.com/englishNEO12Nov2021.php
(10) https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/europe-cap-potash-imports-planting-season-begins
(11) Timothy Abraham, food production expert, in conversation.
(12) https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/fertilizer-out-control-us-farmers-ditch-corn-soy-save-costs
(14) https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/spring-wheat-hits-14-year-high-world-weather-woes
(17) Ditto
(18) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ni%C3%B1a
(20) https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trafalgar-group-taiwan-border-defense/2022/02/21/id/1057819/
(21) https://timcast.com/news/strange-trend-of-food-processing-plants-fires-manifests-across-the-us/
(23) https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/covington-plane-crash-general-mills-factory
(25) https://vaccineimpact.com/2020/worlds-second-largest-hydroxychloroquine-plant-in-taiwan-blows-up/
(26) https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4473342
(29) https://americanmind.org/salvo/the-chips-are-down/
(30) https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/features/automotive-cars-computer-chip-shortage-2022/
(31) https://www.tomshardware.com/news/washing-machines-raied-to-obtain-semiconductors
(32) https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/features/automotive-cars-computer-chip-shortage-2022/
(38) https://dailycaller.com/2022/04/10/california-supply-chain-crisis-worse-biden-trucks-ports/
(40) https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/01/china/beijing-covid-labor-day-holiday-intl-hnk/index.html
(45) https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/05/local-news-reporting-empty-shelves-food-banks-time-prepare/
(47) https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00489-9
Figure 1
Figure 2 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/fertilizer-out-control-us-farmers-ditch-corn-soy-save-costs
Figure 3 Trade Data Monitor; Green Markets, a Bloomberg company
Figure 5